HARDI Distributor Sales Rose 9.0 Percent in September as Cooling Degree Days Jumped
Sales for the 12 months through September grew 3.7 percent. Cooling degree days rose more than 40 percent from September 2025, and days sales outstanding were nearly 38.
Sales by distributors in the Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International survey rose 9.0 percent in September from a year earlier, HARDI said in its monthly TRENDS release on Nov. 5. Sales for the 12 months through September grew 3.7 percent.
Loftus credited the weather. "Cooling degree days increased by more than 40% from September of 2025 with significant increases in five of our seven regions," said Brian Loftus, HARDI's senior market analyst. "Temps have a diminishing impact on demand as we proceed through cooling season, but they certainly had an impact this year."
A Second Weather-Assisted Month
September followed a 7.6 percent gain in August, which HARDI reported Oct. 13 along with 3.4 percent growth for the 12 months through July. Loftus called July and August "the best back-to-back sales growth since late 2022," helped by warmer-than-normal temperatures against a cool August in 2025.
The year-earlier base was soft, since HARDI reported September 2025 sales up 5.3 percent and said that result included an extra billing day, with Loftus estimating sales "about flat" on equal days. He said then that most of 2025's annual growth came from price increases passed through. This year's release makes no billing-day adjustment, and by a weekday count that excludes Labor Day, September 2025 and September 2026 each had 21 business days.
- September 2026 sales: up 9.0 percent
- 12 months through September 2026: up 3.7 percent, against 4.6 percent through September 2025
- August 2026 sales: up 7.6 percent
- September 2025 sales: up 5.3 percent, with one extra billing day
- Days sales outstanding, September 2026: nearly 38, comparable to the same month in 2024 and 2025
Payment Times Normal, Outlook Capped
Days sales outstanding, HARDI's measure of how quickly customers pay, rose from below 37 in August. Loftus attributed the increase to "the normal seasonal pattern, not any market deterioration."
On demand, Loftus was more cautious. "A breakout to the upside looks unlikely with existing home sales and new construction trending flat to down, interest rates rising and dismal consumer confidence," Loftus said, adding that the annual pace remains inside the 2.5 to 4.5 percent range of the past two years.
HARDI's survey is voluntary and unpaid, its coverage varies by region, and the data, compiled by an independent firm, can include products not tied to HVACR.
Why This Matters to Contractors
October is the next comparison, and HARDI's October 2025 release, dated Dec. 3, showed sales down 1.0 percent against an October 2024 lifted by repairs after hurricanes Helene and Milton. Loftus said at the time that distributor inventories remained elevated and that shipments had collapsed 33 percent in October 2025. A second soft base, without the extra cooling degree days, will test whether September's gain came from weather alone.
Sources
- HARDI, "HARDI Distributors Report 9.0% Revenue Increase in September," Nov. 5, 2026. hardinet.org
- HARDI, "HARDI Distributors Report 7.6% Revenue Increase in August," Oct. 13, 2026. hardinet.org
- HARDI, "HARDI Distributors Report 5.3% Revenue Increase in September," 2025. hardinet.org
- HARDI, "HARDI Distributors Report 1% Revenue Decline in October," Dec. 3, 2025. hardinet.org
- Contracting Business, "HARDI Distributors Report 9.0% Revenue Increase in September," Nov. 5, 2026. contractingbusiness.com