August HVAC Shipments Rose 11.4 Percent but Trailed August 2024 by 22.5 Percent
Central air conditioners rose 17.2 percent to 418,323 units and heat pumps rose 5.0 percent to 338,416. Gas furnaces fell 4.3 percent to 287,710.
Manufacturers shipped 756,739 central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in the United States in August, up from 679,378 a year earlier, the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute said Oct. 9. The same report puts August 2024 at 975,841 units.
The 2025 figure is a low bar, since it fell 30.4 percent from the prior August. This year's gain was the seventh straight after a 29.2 percent drop in January, and it slowed from 21.7 percent in June and 20.1 percent in July.
Air Conditioners Account for the Whole Gap to 2024
Combined shipments for the first eight months reached 6,390,257, a gain of 6.2 percent on 2025 and a shortfall of 345,535 units against 2024. Air conditioners alone are 422,117 units behind their 2024 count. Heat pumps are 76,582 units ahead, and they took 45.5 percent of combined shipments through August, compared with 42.0 percent two years ago.
- Central AC: 418,323, down 26.8 percent from 571,153 in August 2024
- Heat pumps: down 16.4 percent from 404,688 in August 2024
- Gas furnaces: down 1.2 percent from 291,132 in August 2024
- Oil furnaces: 3,052, up 27.1 percent from August 2025
- Residential gas storage water heaters: 299,710, down 1.9 percent from August 2025 and 12.1 percent from August 2024
- Residential electric storage water heaters: 368,402, down 1.6 percent from August 2025 and 16.1 percent from August 2024
- Commercial gas storage water heaters: 5,511, down 6.9 percent from August 2025
- Commercial electric storage water heaters: 11,780, down 3.8 percent from August 2025
AHRI publishes the 2024 unit counts without a percent change, so the 2024 comparisons in this article were calculated from its figures.
Largest Shortfalls Sit Below 33,000 BTUH
AHRI treats units of 64,900 BTUH and below as residential. Those sizes totaled 730,548 in August, 22.7 percent under August 2024, while commercial sizes reached 26,191, down 13.5 percent.
The 16,500 to 21,900 BTUH band shows the sharpest split. It shipped 62,022 units, up 1.6 percent on 2025 and 44.2 percent below the 111,134 of two years earlier. The next two bands, reaching up to 32,900 BTUH, ran 26.4 percent and 32.3 percent below August 2024. Sizes from 39,000 to 64,900 BTUH were within about 13 percent of that month.
Gas Furnaces Run Ahead of 2024, Residential Water Heaters Behind
Year-to-date gas furnace shipments of 2,106,454 are down 5.0 percent from 2025 and up 4.8 percent from 2024. Oil furnaces, a far smaller category, reached 20,693, up 15.7 percent on last year.
Residential storage water heaters are behind on both comparisons. Gas units total 2,787,099 for the year, down 2.4 percent on 2025 and 2.7 percent on 2024, and electric units total 3,245,594, down 4.8 percent and 6.8 percent. Commercial gas storage units rose 1.0 percent to 60,181 and commercial electric fell 2.2 percent to 111,172.
Why This Matters to Contractors
September 2025's 528,980 units give AHRI's next report an even softer base, after that month fell 41.5 percent from 903,856 in September 2024. AHRI released last year's September data on Nov. 13, and this year's had not appeared on its statistics page as of Nov. 4. Simply matching this August's unit count would produce a gain of about 43 percent and still land about 16 percent under September 2024, so the two-year comparison will carry more information than the headline figure.
Sources
- Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, "AHRI Releases August 2026 U.S. Heating and Cooling Equipment Shipment Data," Oct. 9, 2026. ahrinet.org
- Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, "July 2026 Statistical Release," Sept. 11, 2026. ahrinet.org
- Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, "June 2026 Statistical Release," 2026. ahrinet.org
- Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, "January 2026 Statistical Release," 2026. ahrinet.org
- Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, "September 2025 Statistical Release," Nov. 13, 2025. ahrinet.org